30
2015
12

Tax cuts to stimulate the auto market bailout growth, 40 million need to go to the foam

  In 1.6L and below displacement vehicle purchase tax by half good policy stimulus, automobile sales in the fourth quarter of this year, the overall warming. According to China Association of Automobile Manufacturers released data show that in October and November, the passenger car market, sales growth reached 10.6% and 13.4%. In policy driven, this year from January to November, China's passenger car sales 18,681,300, an increase of 5.89%.


  Although the auto market is showing increasingly optimistic about the situation, but overcapacity problem can not be ignored. According to the China Automobile Dealers Association to the latest statistics, the domestic automobile stocks early warning indicators in November reached 61.8%, the chain increased 7.7%, significantly exceeding 50% of the boom-bust line.


  Premier Li Keqiang "Thirteen Five" Plan preparation work conference stressed that the supply-side and demand-side ends of force to promote the industry towards high-end. For a time, automobile production capacity topic become the focus nowadays.


  Analysis of data from the international consulting firm IHS Automotive show, in 2015 China total capacity, or up to 40 million cars. According to the current January-November sales of 21,786,600 estimated sales this year of converting more than 26 million, which means that there will be produced or can be millions of vehicles idle.


  In this regard, Secretary General of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers Dong Yang has said publicly: "The car industry in general there is no significant excess capacity if there is excess capacity situation, then the 'excess' is a structured, phased, relative. excess. "


  NBD automotive reporter learned that, in each segment of the market, the rapid growth of the SUV market is still one of the highlights of this year's overall auto market. However, with the SUV market growth of up to 51.12 percent of the difference is that this year, passenger cars and crossover market demand continues to be weak.


  From the supply and demand structure, the structure of the automobile market is quietly changing. In this regard, the Secretary-General Choi Dong-tree by the Federation in an interview with reporters, also said NBD car: "The market demand is changing rapidly, car prices should be based on market demand rational distribution of production capacity, in order to provide products to meet market demand."


  Auto market is facing structural adjustment


  Low-emission vehicle purchase tax by half policy from October 1 this year to implement the sluggish auto market will undoubtedly injected a needle "tonic." Data show that in October and November, the passenger car market, sales growth reached 10.6% and 13.4%.


  Reporters learned that, in fact, this is not the first country to implement similar policies to stimulate automobile consumption. In 2009, the state for the displacement of 1.6 liters and below passenger vehicle purchase reduced rate of 5% levy taxes, prompting the year passenger car sales surged 53 percent. Wherein the cross-type passenger cars and eye-catching performance, respectively, to achieve an increase of 48.07% and 83.39%.


  From the data, the last round of policy for sales of passenger cars and crossover pulling effect is obvious. But this, the reporter noted, policies to encourage those who have the greatest harvest SUV market. Under the policy stimulus, SUV market respectively in October and November has made 60.56 percent and 72.06 percent year on year increase.


  "The difference is that in 2009, the first of the current hot automobile market demand is gradually SUV models like the transfer, and the policy of promoting the market selling more catalytic role models. Secondly, now the powertrain is also improved, which resulted in more more mainstream SUV 1.6L or less able to enter the scope of subsidies, whereby the one on the SUV market pull effect is more prominent. "National Joint Council Secretary-General Choi Dong-tree passenger car NBD told reporters.


  For the tide to cross passenger cars this year, Choi Dong-tree analysis that is due to the current market demand structure from cross-type passenger cars transferred to the small MPV and SUV, "micro-off itself is in a shrinking market. Therefore, the The policy stimulating effect is not too obvious. "


  According to the Automobile Association data show that from January to November, China's passenger car sales was 18,681,300, an increase of 5.89%. Wherein, SUV sales of 5,422,400, an increase of 51.12%; total sales of cross passenger cars 1,004,500, down 18.97 percent.


  From the performance of each segment, China's auto consumption market structure is quietly changing. Choi Dong-tree has stressed that resolving the contradiction between supply and demand will have to see the market demand, car prices should be based on changes in the market situation and to adjust the product structure.


  Qichechanneng need to pay attention to the structural surplus


  With China won the world's largest auto market, all car prices are going to be a strategic focus and investment sights on this one "big cake" on. It is worth noting that the overall pattern of slowing auto market growth this year also did not slow down the pace of expansion of their car prices.


  Choi Dong-tree said that from this year's situation, the Group of 12 major auto production data is about 32.5 million, sales of passenger car market this year, the final will be around 20 million, is a relatively normal capacity utilization. Among them, the joint venture brands of capacity utilization at about 80%, while its own brand is in the range of 50% -60% range. On average, the production capacity utilization maintenance of stability of the market at 60% -70%, are moderate overcapacity.


  In the terminal sales market, some models such as Chang'an CS75 and CS35, Harvard H6, Guangzhou Automobile Chi Chuan, also appeared in the case GS4 explosive sales growth due to shortages.


  In recent years, the Ministry For backward production capacity of related industries given high priority. 2013 and 2014, the letter part of the workers do not publicized the list of backward and excess production capacity of enterprises, including steel, cement, plate glass and other industries eliminated.


  Although the automotive industry has not in on the list, but the reporter noted that part of the car prices in particular on capacity planning does exist some problems in their own brands. Huatai car, for example, adding a new plant in Tianjin, Qinhuangdao two places, Huatai Automobile's production capacity will reach 1.25 million. Its annual sales in 2014 compared to 54,100, its production capacity is undoubtedly the excess.


  In this regard, Choi Dong-tree said that with the gradually accelerating pace of product upgrades and rapid shift in consumer demand, the market did not keep up with the speed of business market will gradually be marginalized, "Now there are indeed some small businesses have been marginalized opposite trend , the Ministry established "zombie car prices' exit mechanism, is actually an effective means of promoting industrial restructuring."


  In addition, the reporter noted, from the market point of view, Weicheshichang face more severe challenges. After the implementation of the "car to the countryside" policy of 2009, including SAIC-GM-Wuling, Changan, Dongfeng well-off, Changhe and many other micro-car companies have expansion of micro-car capacity.


  But in recent years, Weicheshichang continued to decline, in this context, many car companies are also seeking transformation. SAIC-GM-Wuling to build a passenger car brand, "Bao Chun"; Lifan wants to use the new energy vehicles in transition; Hafei Changan Ford is after the acquisition will also face a new round rectification. In addition, as Changan, Dongfeng well-off and other traditional micro-car companies are also slowly will shift its strategic focus from the micro-car to the MPV market, capacity planning will therefore fluctuates.


  Analysts believe that the slowdown in the overall automobile market is facing the background, eliminate backward production capacity, promote the transformation and upgrading of enterprises will be the future of the auto industry's urgent need to address a major issue. For micro-car companies, at Weicheshichang gradually shrinking state, the production plan to a more intense consumer demand MPV market may well be a feasible route.


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