29
2016
02

Electric car revolution will come in 2022

  The highly anticipated electric car revolution will come in 2022. This judgment from the market research firm Bloomberg New Energy Finance report. The report notes that in the next six years, the biggest obstacle to sales of electric vehicles, namely high costs, will be resolved. Using power-driven car prices will drop substantially.


  Report says: "By 2020, the cost of battery-powered electric vehicles purchased in the absence of the subsidies will be lower than internal combustion engine vehicles." On this basis, the report is expected penetration of electric vehicles will increase steadily, year after year sales will reach 2040 41 million, accounting for 25% of the automotive market.


  Prices


  Taking into account the current share of sales of electric cars in the US car market, less than 1%, which is very bold prediction. So far, government subsidies and administrative instruction is the key to attracting users interested in electric vehicles, as well as business-related R & D investment. If the electric car can be the same as the Bloomberg New Energy Finance is expected to become the mainstream, then the entire industry must address a major obstacle to universal: the price is too high. General Motors has developed a single charge with 200 miles (about 322 kilometers), while prices reached $ 30,000 electric car Chevy Bolt, which is an important achievement. This price is slightly lower than the average price of US car market, so there is huge room for development.


  According to the report, change is coming. The authors Salem ˙ Moer Xi (SalimMorsy) said: "We expect the manufacturing costs of electric vehicles will be significantly reduced, while the rate of decline far exceeded the estimate."


  Moer Xi believes that the key to lead this trend is used to drive the car battery. The battery pack price of the vehicle cost about 1/3. From 2010 to 2015, the average price per kilowatt-hour battery pack fell from $ 1,000 to $ 350, a decline of 65%. (The current electric vehicle battery capacity of different sizes, such as the Nissan Leaf battery is 30 kWh, while Tesla ModelX battery pack 90 kWh.)


  This price trend does not depend on a major breakthrough in battery technology, but on the progressive development of production processes and battery chemistry, post-production economies of scale benefits, and a positive pricing strategies to attract customers and related companies taken. Moer Xi said: "We believe that, from now to 2020, the cost will continue to decline sharply."


  There is no doubt that the pace of change will not soon, but by 2022, the battery pack prices will reach $ 200 per kilowatt-hour, and will be reduced in 2030 to $ 120. At the same time, GM said Bolt electric car battery price has been reduced to 145 kWh per dollar. Bloomberg New Energy Finance was unable to confirm this data, but Moer Xi said the upcoming Tesla Model3 Bolt and other models "will prove parity era is coming fast." Moer Xi believes that in the future world will gradually no longer retain the user's personal vehicle, which may limit the total sales volume of the car, but will not affect the proportion of electric vehicles in the automotive market.


  Cautious forecast


  However, there are some issues worth noting. First, the long-term forecast of the electric vehicle market based on a reasonable assumption that by 2030, has a good technology and network of charging stations designed to shape, not just at home in the garage users to charge the car.


  Secondly, the conclusions Bloomberg New Energy Finance also has a premise that government subsidies to promote the rapid development of the market will not be canceled in the short term. In the US, users buy electric cars will get a $ 7,500 federal tax credit amount, but also developed a certain state incentives, such as on congested freeway lanes can be used in combination. European countries also provide a series of tax breaks and incentives, while China, through administrative instruction to encourage electric car sales. However, the US government support for electric vehicles may be attacked. It is reported that major oil 亨科赫 brothers are launching lobbying, trying to get the government abolished subsidies for electric vehicles.


  Third, the comparison of different vehicle ownership costs based on crude oil prices remain at 50-70 US dollars a barrel on expectations. This means that the current ultra-low of $ 32 a barrel oil prices will rebound. Of course, the rebound in oil prices is inevitable.


  However, the biggest causes for concern is that, even if the total cost of ownership of electric vehicles to reach the level of gasoline vehicles, which is not enough to trigger the revolution. Chelsea supporter of electric vehicles ˙ Sexton (ChelseaSexton), said: "Only through greater development in order to achieve this goal." She believes that the 2022 target is a reasonable time, but if you want the user to turn the electric cars, then the current habit of thinking needs to change, because the car was not a rational decision-making process. She believes that if everyone is rational enough, then the money will go to driving a white Honda Civic.


  If you want to achieve this goal, then the dealer needs to start selling electric vehicles, electric vehicles, despite the lower maintenance costs could affect their subsequent income. Car manufacturers must also level marketing resources to electric cars and gasoline vehicles. They also need to have enough capacity to meet market demand.


  Chevrolet Volt former project leader Tony ˙ Posawaci (TonyPosawatz) is currently an industry consultant. He said the report did not have any surprising place. As long as the charging infrastructure continue to promote, the 2022 point in time, "complete with possibility." But "if the infrastructure does not get better advance, it will be limited to 2022 when development curve."


  Reducing the cost of electric vehicles and conventional gasoline vehicles to similar levels. Why not report that the former will appear faster development? This is due to large-scale infrastructure construction speed is very slow. Posawaci noted that only half of American households will be connected to the grid it took 50 years. Electric vehicle industry is making good progress, but "it will be a long march."


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